Dr Tim Köhler

Junior Research Fellow

Expertise: labour economics, poverty and inequality measurement and analysis, economics of education, health economics, cross-sectional and longitudinal household survey data analysis, quasi-experimental econometric techniques.

Tim is a currently a Junior Research Fellow at the DPRU. As an applied development micro-economist, his research centres around the socioeconomic causes and consequences of poverty and inequality in lower-income countries, and South Africa in particular, focusing on the roles of labour markets, social protection policy, education, and healthcare. He earned his PhD from UCT in 2024, with his thesis considering the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour market inequalities in South Africa. He earned his undergraduate, honour’s, and master’s degrees from Stellenbosch University. He previously worked as a research assistant for the Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP) unit in Stellenbosch University’s Department of Economics, which he remains affiliated with, and a research intern in the South African Reserve Bank. He regularly conducts policy-relevant research for several South African government departments such as the Presidency, National Treasury, the Department of Employment and Labour, and multilateral organizations such as the World Bank and the United Nations.

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Peer-reviewed journal publications

  • Bhorat, H. and Köhler, T. (forthcoming). The labour market effects of cash transfers to the unemployed: Evidence from South Africa. In review at World Development.
  • Bhorat, H. and Köhler, T. (forthcoming). Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa’s electricity crisis. In review at Energy Economics.
  • Eyal, K., Maughan-Brown, B, Njozela, L., Köhler, T., Ingle, K.P., Brophy, T.S.L. and Buttenheim, A.M. (2023). Correlates of COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions and opinions about mandates among four groups of adults in South Africa with distinct vaccine intentions: Evidence from a large national survey. Forthcoming in BMC Public Health.
  • Köhler, T., Bhorat, H., Hill, R. and Stanwix, B. (2023). Lockdown stringency and employment formality: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. Journal for Labour Market Research, 57(3): 1-28.
  • Köhler, T. and Hill, R. (2022). Wage subsidies and COVID-19: The distribution and dynamics of South Africa's TERS policy. Development Southern Africa, 39(5): 689-721.
  • Köhler, T. (2022). Class size and learner outcomes in South African schools: The role of school socioeconomic status. Development Southern Africa, 39(2): 126-150.
  • Burger, R., Köhler, T., Golos, A.M., Buttenheim, A.M., English, R., Tameris, M. and Maughan-Brown, B. (2022). Longitudinal changes in COVID-19 vaccination intent among South African adults: evidence from the NIDS-CRAM panel survey, February to May 2021. BMC Public Health, 22(422): 1-10.
  • Köhler, T., English, R. and Christian, C. (2021). Trends in COVID-19 public health intervention adherence and vaccine hesitancy in South Africa: 2020-2021. South African Health Review 2021.

Book chapters

  • Köhler, T., Hill R. and Bhorat, H. (forthcoming). ‘Wage subsidies and job retention in a developing country: Evidence from South Africa’ In Cushioning against Crises: The Role of Tax-Benefit Systems in the Developing World. United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research and Oxford University Press.
  • Allen Whitehead, C., Bhorat, H., Hill, R., Köhler, T. and Steenkamp, F. (forthcoming). ‘Automation and deindustrialisation in the South African manufacturing sector’ In (title forthcoming), Columbia University Press.
  • Köhler, T., Hill R. and Bhorat, H. (forthcoming). ‘The effect of wage subsidies on job retention: Evidence from South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic’, in Cushioning against Crises: The Role of Tax-Benefit Systems in the Developing World. UNU-WIDER, Oxford University Press.
  • Köhler, T., Bhorat, H., Hill R. and Stanwix, B. (2022). ‘The Short-Term Labor Market Effects of South Africa’s National COVID-19 Lockdown.’ In: Qobo, M., Soko, M., Xenia Ngwenya, N. (eds) The Future of the South African Political Economy Post-COVID 19. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.

Working papers (selected)

  • Bhorat, H. and Köhler, T. (2024). Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa’s electricity crisis. Southern Africa - Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) / WIDER Working Paper. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Bhorat, H., Stanwix, B. and Köhler, T. (2024). Measuring the Impact of the 2023 National Minimum Wage Increase. Report for the National Minimum Wage  Commission. Pretoria: Department of Employment and Labour. 
  • Köhler, T. and Bhorat, H. (2023). Wages and wage inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. Development Policy Research Unit Working Paper 202308. DPRU, University of Cape Town.
  • Köhler, T., Bhorat, H., and Hill, R. (2023). The effect of wage subsidies on job retention in a developing country: Evidence from South Africa. WIDER Working Paper 2023/114. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Bhorat, H., Hill, R., Köhler, T., Monnakgotla, J. and Steenkamp, F. (2023). Who are the Robots Coming For? The Evolving Task Content of Employment in South Africa. SARChI Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 2023-06. SARChI Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg.
  • Köhler, T., Bhorat, H. and Hill, R. (2023). Wage Subsidies and Job Retention in a Developing Country: Evidence from South Africa. Development Policy Research Unit Working Paper 202302. DPRU, University of Cape Town.
  • Bhorat, H., Köhler, T. and de Villiers, D. (2023). Can Cash Transfers to the Unemployed Support Economic Activity? Evidence from South Africa. Agence française de développement Research Paper No. 278.