Dr Tim Köhler

Expertise: labour economics, poverty and inequality measurement and analysis, economics of education, health economics, cross-sectional and longitudinal household survey data analysis, quasi-experimental econometric techniques.

Tim is an applied development micro-economist focused on labour markets, social protection, technology, and policy evaluation in lower-income countries, primarily in Africa. He is a Senior Research Officer at the Development Policy Research Unit at the University of Cape Town (UCT) and a non-resident Research Associate at the Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP) unit at Stellenbosch University. He earned his PhD in Economics from UCT in 2024 and was a Visiting Scholar at the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) in Finland in 2025. Tim regularly conducts economic advisory work for several multilateral organisations and government departments, and his research has been published in leading field journals in development economics including World Development and Energy Economics, among other outlets.

Journal articles

Bhorat, H. and Köhler, T. (2025). Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa's electricity crisis. Energy Economics, 142, Article 108119.

Bhorat, H. and Köhler, T. (2025). The labour market effects of cash transfers to the unemployed: Evidence from South Africa. World Development, 188, Article 106889.

Buttenheim, A. M., Köhler, T., Eyal, K. and Maughan-Brown, B. (2024). The effects of behaviorally informed messages on COVID-19 vaccination intentions and behavior: Evidence from randomized survey experiments in South Africa. Journal of Health Communication, 29(10): 603-622.

Eyal, K., Maughan-Brown, B, Njozela, L., Köhler, T., Ingle, K.P., Brophy, T.S.L. and Buttenheim, A. M. (2023). Correlates of COVID-19 vaccination intentions and opinions about mandates among four groups of adults in South Africa with distinct vaccine intentions: Evidence from a large national survey. BMC Public Health, 23(1767): 1-12.

Köhler, T., Bhorat, H., Hill, R. and Stanwix, B. (2023). Lockdown stringency and employment formality: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. Journal for Labour Market Research, 57(3): 1-28.

Köhler, T. and Hill, R. (2022). Wage subsidies and COVID-19: The distribution and dynamics of South Africa's TERS policy. Development Southern Africa, 39(5): 689-721.

Burger, R., Köhler, T., Golos, A.M., Buttenheim, A.M., English, R., Tameris, M. and Maughan-Brown, B. (2022). Longitudinal changes in COVID-19 vaccination intent among South African adults: evidence from the NIDS-CRAM panel survey, February to May 2021. BMC Public Health, 22(422): 1-10.

Köhler, T. (2022). Class size and learner outcomes in South African schools: The role of school socioeconomic status. Development Southern Africa, 39(2): 126-150.

Köhler, T., English, R. and Christian, C. (2021). Trends in COVID-19 public health intervention adherence and vaccine hesitancy in South Africa: 2020-2021. South African Health Review 2021.

Book chapters

Allen Whitehead, C., Bhorat, H., Hill, R., Köhler, T. and Steenkamp, F. (2026). Automation and deindustrialisation in the South African manufacturing sector. In Jayadev, A., Noman, A. and Stiglitz, J. E. (eds) The Future of Work in Developing Countries, Columbia University Press.

Köhler, T., Hill R. and Bhorat, H. (2025). Wage subsidies and job retention in a developing country: Evidence from South Africa. In Jouste, M., Kanbur, R., Pirttilä, J. and Rattenhuber, P. (eds) Poor Protection: The Role of Taxes and Social Benefits in the Developing World During Crises. Oxford University Press.

Köhler, T., Bhorat, H., Hill R. and Stanwix, B. (2022). The Short-Term Labor Market Effects of South Africa’s National COVID-19 Lockdown. In Qobo, M., Soko, M. and Ngwenya, N. X. (eds) The Future of the South African Political Economy Post-COVID 19. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.

Working papers (selected)

Bhorat, H. and Köhler, T. (2024). Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa’s electricity crisis. Southern Africa - Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) / WIDER Working Paper. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.

Bhorat, H., Stanwix, B. and Köhler, T. (2024). Measuring the Impact of the 2023 National Minimum Wage Increase. Report for the National Minimum Wage Commission. Pretoria: Department of Employment and Labour.

Köhler, T. and Bhorat, H. (2023). Wages and wage inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. Development Policy Research Unit Working Paper 202308. DPRU, University of Cape Town.

Köhler, T., Bhorat, H., and Hill, R. (2023). The effect of wage subsidies on job retention in a developing country: Evidence from South Africa. WIDER Working Paper 2023/114. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.

Bhorat, H., Hill, R., Köhler, T., Monnakgotla, J. and Steenkamp, F. (2023). Who are the Robots Coming For? The Evolving Task Content of Employment in South Africa. SARChI Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 2023-06. SARChI Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg.

Köhler, T., Bhorat, H. and Hill, R. (2023). Wage Subsidies and Job Retention in a Developing Country: Evidence from South Africa. Development Policy Research Unit Working Paper 202302. DPRU, University of Cape Town.

Bhorat, H., Köhler, T. and de Villiers, D. (2023). Can Cash Transfers to the Unemployed Support Economic Activity? Evidence from South Africa. Agence française de développement Research Paper No. 278.