Working Papers | Development Policy Research Unit

The DPRU’s successful Working Paper series has a broad target audience, including fellow academics and researchers (both local and international), students, representatives from civil society and the business community, the media, as well as policy-makers and government officials. The majority of these papers represent socioeconomic research on labour market issues, poverty and inequality.

A Working Paper traditionally seeks to answer a specific research-focused question, and routinely includes a literature review, in-depth study and analysis of data, a presentation of results, and one or more research conclusions. Working Papers are usually:

Pre-publication versions of academic journal articles, book chapters, or funder reports.
In progress, under submission, or in press and forthcoming elsewhere.
Offered by the author/s, in the interests of scholarship.
Not peer reviewed or refereed.
Intended to make results of research available to other academics/economists in preliminary form to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before further publication.
Aimed at diffusing economic research results, by making available sometimes preliminary outputs from research, and also to make accessible papers which otherwise may not be published.

Papers may be downloaded from this site by individuals, for their own use, subject to the ordinary rules governing fair use of professional scholarship. Comments on papers or questions about their content should be sent directly to the author, at his or her email address.

To facilitate additional exposure to a broader national and international audience, DPRU Working Papers are also available via RePEc (Research Papers in Economics)

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The Biorefinery as a Pathway to Building Economic Complexity in the Post-Mine Landscape

Juarez Amaral Filho, Haroon Bhorat, Sue Harrison, Robert Hill, Shilpa Rumjeet and François Steenkamp
WP 202407 September 2024

Building on previous Towards Resilient Futures "Community of Practice" (CoP) research, we investigate the feasibility of the biorefinery concept as a method to facilitate both environmental and economic recovery of abandoned mine lands. The biorefinery concept, investigated in this paper, assists in making use of residual biomass to build economic value and reduce materials waste. Using inter-disciplinary methods and the expertise of bio-process engineers, material scientists and development economists, we develop a novel inter-disciplinary micro industrial policy approach (IMIP) that makes use of economic complexity and relatedness metrics, and techno-feasibility studies.

From Coal to Chlorophyll: Identifying Green Job Opportunities for Youth during South Africa’s Just Transition

Robert Hill, Leigh Neethling and Morné Oosthuizen
WP 202406 July 2024

Making use of occupational relatedness metrics, this research investigates the feasibility of green job opportunities to capture displaced youth in Mpumalanga, depending on their employment history. Results of this desktop study – which forms part of a larger cross-country study funded and led by the University of Cambridge – suggest that green jobs are relatively different to the existing experience and task competences of young people, and thus some form of reskilling programme is likely to be necessary for young people to take full advantage of the employment opportunities offered by green jobs.

The Labour Market Effects of Cash Transfers to the Unemployed: Evidence from South Africa

Haroon Bhorat and Timothy Köhler
WP 202405 June 2024

This paper considers the labour market effects of an unconditional cash transfer targeted at the unemployed in a context of extreme unemployment. Using a staggered, heterogeneity robust difference-in-differences design applied to panel labour force survey data, we estimate the contemporaneous and dynamic effects of a new transfer introduced in South Africa, the Social Relief of Distress grant, the first labour market-linked transfer in the country’s history. The results suggest that cash transfers can help reduce labour market constraints but such gains need not translate into better longer-term employment prospects in high-unemployment contexts.

Social Security Coverage among the Working-Age Population in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Timothy Köhler and Jabulile Monnakgotla
WP 202404 June 2024

Using descriptive and micro-econometric techniques on household survey and administrative data, this report provides an analysis of social security coverage among the working-age population in South Africa from 2010 to 2022. Overall, the analysis here seeks to provide a comprehensive understanding of the existence and magnitudes of coverage gaps to social assistance and insurance - broadly as well as the policies within each component – across and within varied subpopulations among the working-aged, how these gaps have varied over time, and what the demographic and socioeconomic factors which most strongly predict access to social security are. In doing so, the results seek to inform how policy might intervene to better target social security to least covered groups.

Supply-Side Economics of a Good Type: Supporting and Expanding South Africa’s Informal Economy

Zaakhir Asmal, Haroon Bhorat Alexia Lochmann, Lisa Martin and Kishan Shah
WP 202403 June 2024

This report presents an empirical profile of South Africa’s informal sector, with an aim of understanding in empirical detail, why South Africa’s informal sector employment remains relatively low in comparison to other developing countries. We present an overview of exogenous constraints to informal activity in South Africa, accompanied by feedback from relevant national and local policy officials where appropriate. We received limited feedback from city officials – itself an indicator of how the informal sector is currently viewed within the country. We consider the limited feedback received within the context of existing data and findings in the literature concerning the informal sector of South Africa. We then provide a preliminary discussion on possible supply-side policy options for expanding the informal sector in South Africa and challenges that may be faced in this regard.

Just Transition and the Labour Market in South Africa: Measuring Individual and Household Coal Economy Dependence

Haroon Bhorat, Tsungai Kupeta, Lisa Martin and François Steenkamp
WP 202402 February 2024

This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate surrounding the just transition in South Africa, by carefully deriving a robust empirical estimate of the coal labour market in South Africa, and the related coal-based electrical utility industry in Mpumalanga. These initial empirical insights into the size and shape of the coal labour market can inform the scale and scope of these policy interventions. Given the heterogenous nature of the labour market, a diverse suite of policy interventions is likely to be required.

Watts Happening to Work? The Labour Market Effects of South Africa’s Electricity Crisis

Haroon Bhorat and Timothy Köhler
WP 202401 May 2024

This paper merges labour force survey microdata with high-frequency electricity supply and demand data to provide the first estimates of the relationships between outages and labour market outcomes in South Africa, a country characterized by frequent, severe outages referred to as load shedding. Exploiting temporal variation in outage incidence and intensity, we find that load shedding is associated with significantly lower employment rates, working hours, and earnings on average. Overall, our findings suggest that the South African labour market is largely insensitive to relatively low levels of load shedding; however, high levels appear especially costly.

Wages and Wage Inequality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa

Timothy Köhler and Haroon Bhorat
WP 202308 October 2023

A revised version of one of Timothy Köhler’s PhD dissertation chapters, this paper makes use of representative and individual-level survey data not available in the public domain provided by Statistics South Africa, to analyse the evolution of the level and nature of wage inequality and its drivers in the country from 2019 to 2022. Because the COVID-19 pandemic affected the supply, demand, and nature of work, the implications for wage inequality are ex ante unclear. In South Africa, a country characterised by extreme income inequality driven by wage inequality, these effects are not yet fully understood due to the unavailability of adequate data. We conduct a micro-econometric analysis of the evolution of the level and nature of wage inequality and its drivers during the first two years of the pandemic in South Africa. Please note that this paper was revised in November 2023 - the updated version is also available here.

Co-ordination to support inclusive growth in developing countries in the context of globalization: The case of the business process outsourcing sector in South Africa

Caitlin Allen Whitehead, Zaakhir Asmal, and Haroon Bhorat
WP 202307 August 2023

Using a case study approach, we interviewed five BPO experts to ascertain the opportunities for inclusive growth, job creation, the nature of skills in the sector and factors which have contributed to the continued success of the sector in South Africa. Our findings suggest that outside of major urban centres, opportunities to partake in the sector are limited. In addition, while there are many opportunities for young people for entry-level roles in the sector, there has been a recent shift towards more complex roles, which will require candidates to possess a larger number of skills. This paper formed part of a series of case studies for the UNTANGLED interdisciplinary research project (https://projectuntangled.eu).

Technological Change in the Insurance Sector in South Africa:
Disruption with the Potential for Social Good in a Developing Country Context?

Zaakhir Asmal, Haroon Bhorat, Lisa-Cheree Martin, and Chris Rooney
WP 202306 August 2023

Adopting the case study approach, we examine how technological change has affected the insurance sector in South Africa, with a particular focus on employment and job quality, skills and inequality. We find that technological innovation is likely to lead to job losses, while the effect on job quality is currently indeterminate. This paper formed part of a series of case studies for the UNTANGLED interdisciplinary research project (https://projectuntangled.eu).

Skilled Immigration in South Africa

Zaakhir Asmal, Haroon Bhorat, David de Villiers and Lisa Martin
WP 202304 May 2023

An input into the Operation Vulindlela review of Critical Skills and General Work visas, this paper considers a number of issues related to the need for high skilled immigrant labour to be imported into the country against a backdrop of high unemployment. This included: Evidence of the benefits associated with skilled immigration in countries; An analysis of firm experiences with the visa application process using responses from a survey of firms; A review of the operational and structural inefficiencies within the current visa application processes in South Africa, taking into consideration the nature of unemployment in South Africa and the role of Employment Services of South Africa (ESSA) data and the Critical Skills List in skilled immigration visa application assessments.

Manufacturing in Sub-Saharan Africa: Deindustrialisation or a Renaissance?

Zaakhir Asmal, Haroon Bhorat, Christopher Rooney, and François Steenkamp
WP 202303 April 2023

In this paper, we contribute to the literature on deindustrialisation in SSA by using a common dataset over a defined period, 1990-2018, using two estimators and model specifications applied in the existing literature, thus allowing us to test whether the premature deindustrialisation thesis – or indeed the empirical challenges to it – are model dependent and time-specific. Using a common dataset and time period, we thus eliminate a source of heterogeneity which is present when comparing the results of other studies.

Wage Subsidies and Job Retention in a Developing Country: Evidence from South Africa

Tim Köhler, Haroon Bhorat and Robert Hill
WP 202302 April 2023

Wage subsidies served as a dominant labour market policy response around the world to mitigate job losses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, no causal evidence of their effects exists for developing countries. We use unique panel labour force survey data and exploit a temporary institutional eligibility detail to estimate the causal effects of such a policy – the Temporary Employer-Employee Relief Scheme (TERS) – on job retention among formal private sector employees in South Africa.

Can Cash Transfers to the Unemployed Support Economic Activity? Evidence from South Africa

Tim Köhler, Haroon Bhorat and David de Villiers
WP 202301 March 2023

We adopt a doubly robust, semi-parametric Difference-in-Differences approach on representative panel labour force data to estimate the contemporaneous and cumulative causal effects of the COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant – the country’s first unconditional cash transfer targeted at the unemployed – on labour market outcomes. Our findings suggest that the grant has performed a multi-purpose role in providing income relief while also enabling a path towards more favourable labour market outcomes.

Understanding the Economic Complexity of the MER Sector with a Focus on SMMEs: A Synthesis

Caitlin Allen Whitehead, Haroon Bhorat, Robert Hill, Timothy Köhler and François Steenkamp
WP 202204 December 2022

This research analyses the MER sector through the novel and innovative lens of economic complexity and industrial relatedness theory to identify diversification opportunities and address capability constraints. The findings provide evidence-based industrial policy recommendations to revitalize the sector and, by extension, the broader South African economy. We also provide a unique policy calculus that quantifies the potential economic outcomes that may emerge should the MER sector realise the industrial diversification opportunities identified.

Expansion and Diversification in the MER Sector: Results from an Enterprise Survey

Caitlin Allen Whitehead, Haroon Bhorat, Robert Hill, Timothy Köhler and François Steenkamp
WP 202203 November 2022

This paper details the constraints to overcome, and the capabilities required, to realise frontier product industrial diversification opportunities – as identified in Allen-Whitehead and Bhorat (2021) – in the Manufacturing, Engineering and Related Services (MER) sector (a core component of South Africa’s broader manufacturing sector). Specific focus is placed on the extent to which the skills of the MER sector workforce constrain, and/or enable, the realisation of these industrial diversification opportunities.

Readers interested in a more detailed overview of the process should consult the accompanying technical report entitled “MER Sector Enterprise Survey: Survey Methods".

Testing Positive for Automation: Labour-replacing Technology and Job Loss during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa

Angela Euston-Brown
WP 202202 October 2022

The risk of technological job displacement represents an important component of vulnerability to job loss that has been poorly explored in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanding on the routinisation hypothesis, this paper merges O*NET occupational descriptors to South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey data to investigate the role of automation risk on the likelihood of job loss between February and May 2020.

Wage subsidies and COVID-19: The distribution and dynamics of South Africa's TERS policy

Tim Köhler and Robert Hill
WP 202109 November 2021

Wage subsidy-based job retention policy has served as a dominant tool used to mitigate job losses in the context of COVID-19. In South Africa, such a policy served as a core component of the government’s policy response: the Temporary Employer-Employee Relief Scheme (TERS). We make use of longitudinal survey data to analyse aggregate and between-group TERS receipt during the pandemic as well as the relationship between receipt and job retention.

Can cash transfers aid labour market recovery? Evidence from South Africa’s special COVID-19 grant

Tim Köhler and Haroon Bhorat
WP 202108 June 2021

In this paper, we provide a quantitative, descriptive analysis on COVID-19 grant receipt as well as causal estimates of the receipt of the grant on labour market participation by adopting a quasi-experimental econometric approach. We estimate that in the grant’s absence poverty would have been over 5% higher among the poorest households, and household income inequality 1.3% to 6.3% higher. Our findings suggest that the grant has played an important role in reducing inactivity, enabling participation, and ultimately aiding labour market recovery.

COVID-19 and the labour market: Estimating the employment effects of South Africa’s national lockdown

Timothy Köhler, Haroon Bhorat, Robert Hill and Benjamin Stanwix
WP 202107 May 2021

We seek to specifically isolate and provide causal evidence on the effect of South Africa’s lockdown policy - to do so, we adopt a quasi-experimental econometric technique to exploit variation in legislated industry-level permission to work and the coincidental timing of the lockdown and data collection dates of nationally representative labour force data.

The Potential Employment Implications of the Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies: The Case of the Manufacturing, Engineering and Related Services Sector

Caitlin Allen Whitehead, Haroon Bhorat, Robert Hill, Timothy Köhler and François Steenkamp
WP 202106 May 2021

In this paper we examine the potential employment displacement effects of technologies related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) on the MER sector, by observing this risk through the lens of the task-content of occupations or the routinisation hypothesis. Drawing on household survey data, we explore the characteristics of workers who occupy these high risk occupations in an attempt at identifying a typology of individuals most likely to be deleteriously impacted on by 4IR technologies.

Understanding Economic Complexity: An Application to the MER Sector

Caitlin Allen Whitehead and Haroon Bhorat
WP 202105 May 2021

Examining South Africa’s path of structural transformation through the lens of complexity analytics, we develop a relatively novel method for identifying opportunities for diversification in the Manufacturing, Engineering, and Related Services (MER) Sector. Our results suggest that opportunities for SA to build its economic complexity lie in developing, diversifying and building product-specific complexity in the country’s motor industry.

The Impact of the National Minimum Wage in South Africa: Early Quantitative Evidence

Haroon Bhorat, Adaiah Lilenstein and Ben Stanwix
WP 202104 April 2021

We provide a basic quantitative assessment of the recent introduction of a National Minimum Wage (NMW) in South Africa, with a specific focus on the short-term labour market impacts, using labour force survey data to examine and measure the quantitative effects of the NMW. Our work using the cross-sectional data shows no statistically significant impact of the NMW, and we find no evidence of an associated decrease in employment.

Job Quality in South Africa: A Proposed Index for Ongoing Monitoring of Job Quality

Jabulile Monnakgotla and Morné Oosthuizen
WP 202103 March 2021

This paper proposes a simple job quality index using the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data that can be readily updated on an ongoing basis as new data becomes available. Using this index, we find that job quality declined over the 2011-2017 period, driven by deterioration in the average scores on the dimensions of wages and representation and voice.

Employment creation potential, labor skills requirements, and skill gaps for young people: A South African case study

Caitlin Allen, Zaakhir Asmal, Haroon Bhorat, Robert Hill, Jabulile Monnakgotla, Morné Oosthuizen, and Christopher Rooney
WP 202102 February 2021

In this paper, we consider the case for specific “industries without smokestacks” (IWOSS) sectors to drive structural transformation that is inclusive and able to generate employment across the skills distribution. We also consider the skill requirements for the potential of these sectors to be realized.

Mind the gap: The distributional effects of South Africa’s national lockdown on gender wage inequality

Robert Hill and Tim Köhler
WP 202101 January 2021

This paper investigates whether gender wage inequality has deepened among job retainers in South Africa, using the newly-available representative survey data conducted during SA’s lockdown – Wave 2 of the NIDS-CRAM. We use Recentred Influence Function (RIF) regressions to estimate the gender wage gap across the wage distribution given evidence of heterogeneity, and argue that increased wage inequality was driven by a reduction in working hours amongst women relative to men due to an increased childcare burden during the lockdown.

Social assistance during South Africa’s national lockdown: Examining the COVID-19 grant, changes to the Child Support Grant, and post-October policy options

Tim Köhler and Haroon Bhorat
WP 202009 October 2020

Using the newly-available representative survey data conducted during SA’s lockdown – Wave 2 of the NIDS-CRAM – we analyse (i) the distribution of application for and receipt of the special COVID-19 SRD grant, considering this was not feasible using the NIDS-CRAM Wave 1 data, (ii) how the Child Support Grant ‘per grant’ top-up in May compares to the ‘per caregiver’ top-up in place from June 2020 onwards, and (iii) the costs and welfare effects of several alternative policy options to consider once the expansion of the grants system comes to an end after October.

COVID-19, social protection, and the labour market in South Africa: Are social grants being targeted at the most vulnerable?

Tim Köhler and Haroon Bhorat
WP 202008 August 2020

This paper aims to use newly available, nationally representative survey data – Wave 1 of the NIDS-CRAM – to provide a quantitative, descriptive evaluation of whether social grants are being successfully targeted at the most vulnerable in the context of the national lockdown and COVID-19 crisis in South Africa. Considering the observed heterogeneity in labour market outcomes before and during lockdown across the household income distribution and that grants are relatively well-targeted; we conclude with a set of policy recommendations for South Africa’s social protection system going forward.

The Employment Tax Incentive Scheme in South Africa: An Impact Assessment

Haroon Bhorat, Robert Hill, Safia Khan, Kezia Lilenstein and Ben Stanwix
WP 202007 August 2020

This paper makes use of administrative tax data to accurately identify and estimate the impact of the Employment Tax Incentive (ETI) using individual and firm-level tax returns for the period 2013 to 2016 using a Difference-in-Differences methodology combined with propensity score matching. The impact of the ETI is found to be statistically significant but small in magnitude - in addition, the effect of the ETI seems to be declining over time.

Social Assistance Amidst the Covid-19 Epidemic in South Africa: An Impact Assessment

Haroon Bhorat, Morné Oosthuizen and Ben Stanwix
WP 202006 July 2020

This paper emphasises that social assistance from the South African government to mitigate the consequences of Covid-19 should not be viewed necessarily as a standard poverty reduction exercise, but rather as an attempt to mitigate Covid-related income shocks for the vulnerable who were most negatively affected by the pandemic.

Jobs, Economic Growth, and Capacity Development for Youth in Africa

Haroon Bhorat and Morné Oosthuizen
WP 202005 May 2020

By successfully addressing capability constraints, policy can have a potentially greater impact on the accumulation of capabilities and economic diversification, unlocking the potential of manufacturing as a source of economic dynamism and job creation. By focusing more narrowly on specific products identified through the economic complexity methodology, it is argued that policymakers can be presented with a more targeted menu of policy recommendations aimed at resolving very specific problems within economies.

The Economics of Covid-19 in South Africa: Early Impressions

Haroon Bhorat, Tim Köhler, Morné Oosthuizen, Ben Stanwix, François Steenkamp and Amy Thornton
WP 202004 May 2020

South Africa’s efforts to contain the Covid-19 pandemic have been relatively rapid and comprehensive by international standards. In this paper we bring together a set of early impressions on the economics of the pandemic in South Africa, focused on several areas that are of key concern. We assess both the potential economic impact of the pandemic, and the monetary and fiscal responses to the crises, detailing the various relief measures, and the implications for the fiscus. We also present an analytical instrument that can be used to guide thinking about the length and intensity of lockdowns in South Africa.

Jobs and COVID-19: Measuring Work-Related Physical Interaction

Haroon Bhorat, Amy Thornton, Tim Köhler, and Morné Oosthuizen
WP 202003 April 2020

Given the role of physical human proximity and contact in the spread of COVID-19, we build an index measuring the level of physical interaction for different occupations. Our Physical Interaction Index provides some empirical evidence about a dimension of transmission risk that could inform how to calibrate the composition of economic sectors being phased back to work over the next few months. This short note introduces the index and provides some initial descriptive results for the South African labour market.

Measuring Multidimensional Labour Law Violation with an Application to South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur, Benjamin Stanwix and Amy Thornton
WP 202002 February 2020

This paper draws on the multidimensional poverty literature to propose a measure of multidimensional labour law violation, which allows a quantification of the contribution of compliance along different dimensions. This index is applied to South Africa to illustrate its workings and the insights it can provide on the nature and granular structure of labour law compliance and worker vulnerability.

Crime and Inequality in South Africa: Non-Linear Outcomes Under Extreme Inequality

Haroon Bhorat, Adaiah Lilenstein, Jabulile Monnakgotla, Amy Thornton and Kirsten van der Zee
WP 202001, February 2020

How does South Africa’s extremely concentrated income inequality affect the incidence of property crime? Studies based on developed countries with much lower inequality levels show that property crime increases monotonically with inequality; but this is not the case for South Africa. We use 2011 South African census data and property crime data locally disaggregated to the police precinct level.

Building Economic Complexity in Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Christopher Rooney and François Steenkamp
WP 201906, December 2019

This paper provides a synthesis of four country case studies on Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and South Africa, that examine structural change through the lens of economic complexity, and provide policy options through which these countries can achieve structural change that expands the economic opportunities for disenfranchised women and youth.

Economic Complexity and Employment Expansion: The Case of South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Arabo Ewinyu, Kezia Lilenstein, Christopher Rooney, François Steenkamp and Amy Thornton
WP 201905, December 2019

Using the methodological tools from the Atlas of Economic Complexity, we attempt to detail the level of economic complexity of the South African economy, and locate its relative level of complexity within the regional and global space; examine the extent to which the SA economy has undergone complexity-led structural transformation; identify avenues for SA to diversify toward an increasingly complex productive structure; and examine whether these avenues have the potential to generate economic opportunities for women and youth.

Does IEB make the grade? Alternative testing methods and Educational outcomes: The case of the IEB in South Africa

Robert Hill
WP 201904, November 2019

This paper investigates to what extent the IEB school-leaving examination can benefit students in their pursuit of tertiary education, and how much of the effect accrues to the teaching effect as opposed to the testing effect.

Labour Market Policy Responses amidst Globalisation: The Case of South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Kezia Lilenstein and François Steenkamp
WP 201903, November 2019

This paper uses a variety of empirical techniques to assess three ALMPs – a job re-training scheme, a public employment scheme and a wage subsidy scheme – implemented in the post-apartheid period. The implementation of a rigorous monitoring and evaluation programme for each of the ALMPs is of key importance to assessing the impact of such schemes and tailoring them to ensure increased effectiveness in the future.

An Initial Assessment of Biodiversity-Related Employment in South Africa

Amanda Driver, Fulufhelo Mukhadi & Emily A. Botts
WP 201902, October 2019

In the context of high and persistent unemployment in South Africa, this paper explores the extent to which the country’s biodiversity assets, which are exceptional in global terms, contribute to providing jobs.

Minimum Wages and Labor Supply in an Emerging Market: The Case of Mauritius

Zaakhir Asmal, Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur, Marco Ranzani and Pierella Paci
WP 201901, January 2019

This is the first study to consider the effect of minimum wages on employment in Mauritius specifically. Using data between 2004 and 2014, we find that a 10% increase in the minimum wages brings about a slightly positive effect on employment in the covered sector.

Understanding and Characterizing the Services Sector in South Africa: An Overview

Haroon Bhorat, François Steenkamp, Christopher Rooney, Nomsa Kachingwe and Adrienne Lees
WP 201803, October 2018

The services sector in South Africa is diverse and intertwines with the functioning and transformation of the economy in diverse ways. This report aims to examine the impact and potential of generating a services industry-led growth path in South Africa.

SMMES in South Africa: Understanding the Constraints on Growth and Performance

Haroon Bhorat, Zaakhir Asmal, Kezia Lilenstein and Kirsten van der Zee
WP 201802, July 2018

This paper serves to present a snapshot of the current profile of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) in South Africa as well as the key inhibitors of growth for SMMEs: evaluating the endogenous and exogenous impediments to growth.

Structural Change and Patterns of Inequality in the South African Labour Market

Haroon Bhorat and Safia Khan
WP 201801, March 2018

To understand the role that structural change has had on inequality in the labour market this paper provides an overview of key labour market trends in the post-apartheid era followed by an analysis of labour demand trends, and structural transformation.

The Seychelles Labor Market

Haroon Bhorat, Arabo Ewinyu, Derek Yu
WP 201706, July 2017

This report, produced as a background paper to the World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), provides an detailed overview of the Seychelles labor market, highlighting the relationship between changes to the overall structure of the economy and employment levels. Our analysis suggests that future economic growth in the Seychelles is dependent on increasing overall labor absorption levels in a manner which ensures that high quality employment opportunities grow at a sufficient pace to absorb the rising number of labor force participants.

The SocioEconomic Determinants of Crime in South Africa: an Empirical Assessment

Haroon Bhorat, Adaiah Lilenstein, Jabulile Monnakgotla, Amy Thornton and Kirsten van der Zee
WP 201704, March 2017

Common correlates of crime, such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality, are at extreme levels in South Africa – making the investigation of the determinants of crime highly pertinent. We combine published crime statistics with demographic data from the 2011 South African Census Community Profiles to investigate which socio-economic factors attract crime at a police precinct level.

Correlates of ICTs and Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Safia Khan, Kezia Lilenstein, Morné Oosthuizen and Christopher Rooney
WP 201703, March 2017

The impact of ICTs on the employment prospects of those in SSA have been poorly recorded. This paper models the impact of ICTs on the employment outcomes of individuals in 12 African countries, taking into account the varying nature of self-employment compared to other types of third party employment.

State Of Manufacturing In South Africa

Haroon Bhorat and Christopher Rooney
WP 201702, March 2017

A key source for more and better types of jobs is the labour intensive manufacturing sector, but we find that compared to other sectors of the economy, the South African manufacturing sector has performed poorly, both in terms of GDP growth and job creation.

The Role of Informal Urban Settlements in Upward Mobility

Ivan Turok, Josh Budlender and Justin Visagie
WP 201701, February 2017

The paper uses longitudinal data for South Africa to explore the magnitude of social progression among people living within informal settlements compared with the residents of rural areas and formal urban areas. The objective is to assess whether shack settlements foster or frustrate human progress in the way they link people to the services, contacts and livelihoods concentrated in cities.

The Paradox of Effective Labor Regulation

Lucas Ronconi, Mercedes Sidders and Benjamin Stanwix
WP 201605, December 2016

Why some countries choose a combination of highly protective laws and little enforcement is a puzzle that cannot be rationalized with traditional explanations. This paper collects administrative, legal and household survey data to emphasize a stylized fact about labor regulation that has been generally overlooked – countries with more protective employment regulations tend to enforce these regulations less, and usually focus their enforcement efforts on large firms.

Vulnerability In Employment: Evidence from South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Kezia Lilenstein, Morné Oosthuizen, Amy Thornton
WP 201604, November 2016

This paper sets out to update the impression of vulnerability in the labour market, by examining how low pay and informality interact with each other, and with poverty. Throughout, we try to include comparative results from within the sub-Saharan Africa and Latin American regions. What becomes clear is that a job alone is not a solution to poverty in South Africa. And informality in South Africa plays an important role as a buffer to unemployment in contrast to the higher levels of voluntary informality in Latin America.

Informality and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Aalia Cassim, Kezia Lilenstein, Morné Oosthuizen, Francois Steenkamp
WP 201602, May 2016

This research seeks to explore the relationship between informality and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on South Africa. South Africans typically hold one of two opposing views on the informal sector. One: that informality should be encouraged as an under-utilised source of new employment. Two: that it should be discouraged as an inferior source of employment. The central research question is therefore: “Do informal labour markets promote or constrain inclusive growth?”

Investigating the Feasibility of a National Minimum Wage for South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Tara Caetano, Benjamin Jourdan, Ravi Kanbur, Christopher Rooney, Benjamin Stanwix and Ingrid Woolard
WP 201601, May 2016

This report is divided into Part I: a quantitative analysis of the feasibility of a national minimum wage for South Africa (completed by the DPRU); and Part II: a qualitative analysis that investigates how a national minimum wage might affect young people’s labour market outcomes in South Africa (completed by the CSDA). The DPRU was commissioned by the Department of Labour to provide an analytical and empirical rubric, with which a more informed and nuanced decision could be taken around the promulgation of a NMW for South Africa.

Labor Market Regulations in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a focus on Senegal

Stephen Golub, Aly Mbaye and Hanyu Chwe
WP 201505, December 2015

Disappointing job creation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), despite improved economic growth, is drawing greater attention to the labor market. Recent research has highlighted the paucity of formal employment and large disparities between formal and informal sector incomes. Formal private sector wage employment has grown too slowly to offset declines in public sector employment and to keep up with labor force growth, so employment remains overwhelmingly informal, with very low wages, no benefits or job security, and hazardous working conditions. The question arises as to whether labor market regulations play a role in limiting formal sector employment creation.

Can Africa Compete with China in Manufacturing? The Role of Relative Unit Labor Costs

Janet Ceglowski, Stephen Golub, Aly Mbaye and Varun Prasad
WP 201504, August 2015

Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China shows an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of trade, in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. African relative unit labor cost (RULC) levels have generally been very high relative to China, but declined over the 2000s as China’s wages have risen faster than Chinese productivity, while the reverse is true for some SSA countries. Generally high RULC along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labor-intensive manufacturing any time soon.

Minimum Wages in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Primer

Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur and Ben Stanwix
WP 201503, June 2015

This paper reflects on possible early lessons for wage-setting regimes in the region, and the research agenda to inform the policy makers on key trade-offs in minimum wage setting. The release of country-level earnings and employment data at regular intervals lies at the heart of a future country-focused minimum wage research agenda for Africa.

Non-Income Welfare And Inclusive Growth In South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Benjamin Stanwix and Derek Yu
WP201407, December 2014

Recent studies on poverty trends in South Africa suggest that poverty increased in the 1990s, before a continuous downward trend took place after 2000. This study augments the income and expenditure-based literature by examining poverty trends using household assets and services. We consider numerous private assets, household service variables, and educational attainment in order to derive a non-income welfare index.

The Urban Informal Sector in Francophone Africa:Large Versus Small Enterprises in Benin, Burkina Faso and Senegal

Aly Mbaye, Nancy Benjamin, Stephen Golub and Jean-Jacques Ekomie
WP 201405, December 2014

The informal sector is often associated with micro- and family-based firms. In West Africa, however, some informal firms are very large. Based on detailed surveys and interviews carried out in Benin, Burkina Faso and Senegal, we compare the characteristics of formal, large informal and small informal firms.

The Real Exchange Rate and Sectoral Employment in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Nan Tian, Mark Ellyne
WP 201404, December 2014

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment in South Africa from 1975 to 2009. Overall, following a real exchange rate appreciation, the results show strong support for a negative and significant employment decline in the tradable sector, limited evidence of a positive employment impact in the non-tradable sector and generally no effect on aggregate employment.

The Silent Success: Delivery of Public Assets Since Democracy

Haroon Bhorat, Carlene van der Westhuizen, Derek Yu
WP 201403, July 2014

Most developing economies yield positive economic growth simultaneously associated with little or no change in non-income welfare. This paper estimates the extent to which non-income welfare has improved in South Africa since democracy.

Trade Unions In An Emerging Economy: The Case Of South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Karmen Naidoo, Derek Yu
WP 201402, July 2014

This paper provides a historical overview of the South African trade union movement before and after the end of apartheid. Labour market legislation and institutions formed since 1994 are discussed, with an evaluation of the impact of trade unions and wage legislation on labour market outcomes in South Africa.

Economic Policy in South Africa: Past Present and Future

Haroon Bhorat, Alan Hirsch, Ravi Kanbur and Mthuli Ncube
WP 201401, July 2014

As the 20th anniversary of the transition to democracy approaches in 2014, the economic policy debates in SA are in full flow. The forthcoming Oxford Companion to the Economics of South Africa contributes to the policy and analytical debate by drawing together perspectives from leading economists working on SA.

Do Industrial Disputes Reduce Employment? Evidence from South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Elne Jacobs and Carlene van der Westhuizen
WP 13/161, December 2013

Theory predicts that an increase in employment protection may reduce employment levels by acting as a tax on firms by constraining hiring and firing decisions. We use a unique administrative database of the country’s dispute resolution body – the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA) – to create a nuanced and empirically based measure of employment protection for the labour market in South Africa.

Unemployment Insurance in South Africa: A Descriptive Overview of Claimants and Claims

Haroon Bhorat, Sumayya Goga and David Tseng
WP 13/160, December 2013

This study, primarily descriptive in nature, is one of the first to examine the claiming behaviour of unemployment benefit recipients within the South African Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) system. In the period between 2005 and 2011, those with the lowest potential claim periods were also subject, on average, to lower absolute benefits compared to their wealthier counterparts.

Labour Unions and Wage Inequality Among African Men in South Africa

Miracle Ntuli and Prudence Kwenda
WP 13/159, December 2013

One Achilles’ heel of post-Apartheid South Africa is the growing intra-racial income inequality, particularly among Africans. This paper examines the role of labour unions in explaining this phenomenon among African men given that labour markets are at the core of income inequality in South Africa.

Inflation Inequality In South Africa

Morne Oosthuizen
WP 13/158, October 2013

The inflation crisis of 2008 drew greater attention to the varying experiences of inflation in South Africa and, in particular, to the fact that different groups within society may have significantly differing inflation experiences. The groups may be defined according to income level, but may also be categorised according to demographic, labour market and other characteristics.

Maximising South Africa's Demographic Dividend

Morne Oosthuizen
WP 13/157, October 2013

Based on 2005 estimates of National Transfer Accounts for South Africa, this paper investigates the resource flows across ages within the generational economy. The paper provides estimates of the lifecycle deficit and describes the financing of the deficit. The final section of the paper discusses the first and second demographic dividends and looks at potential policy options that would help the country maximise the benefit that arises through the demographic transition.

Disability Grant and Individual Labour Force Participation: The Case of South Africa

George Mutasa
WP 12/156, December 2012

Despite the explosive growth in the number of people receiving disability benefits in South Africa, very little is known about the labour supply effects of the disability grant (DG). This study investigates the impact of disability grant receipt on labour force participation. Consideration is given to potential bias that may arise from unobserved confounding factors.

Demographic, Community and Macroeconomic Effects on Disability Grant Programme Participation

George Mutasa
WP 12/155, December 2012

This paper investigates the role of demographic, community and macroeconomic effects on Disability Grant programme (DGP) participation. The study descriptively analyses demographic patterns of the disability grant (DG) beneficiaries using data from the 2002 to 2007 rounds of the General Household Survey (GHS). The decision to participate in the programme is empirically examined by probit techniques using data drawn from the 2007 wave of the GHS.

The Impact of Sectoral Minimum Wage Laws on Employment, Wages and Hours of Work in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur, Natasha Mayet
WP 12/154, November 2012

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of sectoral wage laws in South Africa. Specifically, we examine the impact of minimum wage laws promulgated in the Retail, Domestic work, Forestry, Security, and Taxi sectors using 15 waves of biannual Labour Force Survey data for the 2000-2007 period.

Student Graduation, Labour Market Destinations and Employment Earnings

Haroon Bhorat, Natasha Mayet, Mariette Visser
WP 12/153, November 2012

This paper investigates the labour market destinations of graduates from seven higher education institutions in South Africa. A three-step estimation procedure is employed in which the relative importance of covariates such as age, race, and gender in each stage from educational attainment to pre-defined labour market outcomes, is estimated.

Employment Outcomes and Returns to Earnings in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Natasha Mayet
WP 12/152, November 2012

This paper attempts to understand some of the key drivers of employment and earnings trends within the South African labour market in the 15 years following the demise of apartheid. A number of factors are discussed which feature in the understanding of South Africa’s labour market dynamics in general, and its high unemployment levels in particular.

Poverty, Inequality and the Nature of Economic Growth in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Carlene Van Der Westhuizen
WP 12/151, November 2012

The post-1994 period in the South African economy is characterised, perhaps most powerfully, by the fact that the economy recorded one of its longest periods of positive economic growth in the country’s history. One of the more vexing issues within the economic policy terrain in post-apartheid South Africa though, has been the impact of this consistently positive growth performance on social welfare.

A Nation in Search of Jobs: Six Possible Policy Suggestions for Employment Creation in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat
WP 12/150, July 2012

I provide six possible employment creating policy options within the arena of principally, but not exclusively, active labour market policy. The notion is that interventions in these areas should provide for short-term and possibly long-term employment creation avenues and options for the currently unemployed.

Estimating the Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment, Wages and Non-wage Benefits: The Case of Agriculture in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur, Benjamin Stanwix
WP 12/149, July 2012

Assessments of the impact of minimum wages on labour market outcomes in Africa are relatively rare. In part this is because the data available do not permit adequate treatment of econometric issues that arise in such an assessment. This paper attempts to estimate the impact of the introduction of a minimum wage law within the Agriculture sector in South Africa, based on 15 waves of the biannual Labour Force Survey (LFS), starting in September 2000 and ending in September 2007.

The Gender Wage Gap in the Post-apartheid South African Labour Market

Haroon Bhorat, Sumayya Goga
WP 12/148, July 2012

We estimate the gender wage gap for Africans in post-apartheid South Africa over the 2001 to 2007 period. Separate male and female earnings equations yields no significant decline in the conditional wage gap, regardless of whether we correct for selection into the labour force and employment or not.

The Newly Unemployed and the UIF Take-up Rate in the South African Labour Market

Haroon Bhorat, David Tseng
WP 12/147, July 2012

This paper investigates the take-up rate or claim-waiting rate of the unemployed under the South African Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) system. The goal is to identify disincentive effects that income replacement rates (IRR) and accumulated credits may have on the claimantâ€Ÿs behaviour in terms of their claim waiting period rate (or how quickly they apply for UIF benefits).

Institutional Wage Effects: Revisiting Union and Bargaining Council Wage Premia in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Sumayya Goga, Carlene Van Der Westhuizen
WP 11/146, December 2011

The literature on the union wage gap in South Africa is extensive, spanning a range of datasets and methodologies. There is however little consensus on the appropriate method to correct for the endogeneity of union membership or the size of the union wage gap. Furthermore, there are very few studies on the bargaining council wage premium in South Africa due to lack of data on coverage of employees under these agreements.

Estimating the Causal Effect of Enforcement on Minimum Wage Compliance : The Case of South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur, Natasha Mayet
WP 11/145, November 2011

This paper attempts to estimate the causal effect of government enforcement on compliance with minimum wages in South Africa, a country where considerable non-compliance exists. The number of labour inspectors per capita is used as a proxy for enforcement, whilst non-compliance is measured using an index of violation that measures both the proportion of individuals violated, as well as the average depth of individual violation.

Economists versus the Street: Comparative Viewpoints on Barriers to Self-employment in Khayelitsha, South Africa

Paul Cichello, Liberty Mncube, Morne Oosthuizen, Laura Poswell
WP 11/144, November 2011

What prevents the unemployed in Khayelitsha, South Africa from trying self-employment? Perceptions of a small group of academic economists are presented and compared to the perceptions of unemployed Khayelitsha residents themselves.

Minimum Wage Violation in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur, Natasha Mayet
WP 11/143, October 2011

Minimum wage legislation is central in South African policy discourse, with both strong support and strong opposition. The validity of either position depends, however, on the effectiveness of minimum wage enforcement. Using detailed matching of occupational, sectoral and locational codes in the 2007 Labour Force Survey to the gazetted minimum wages, this paper presents, we believe for the first time, estimates of minimum wage violation in South Africa.

Estimating a poverty line: An application to free basic municipal services in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat, Morne Oosthuizen, Carlene Van Der Westhuizen
WP 11/142, October 2011

One of the key interventions aimed at improving the welfare of South African households has been local government’s provision of a package of free basic services (FBS) to poor households. It is, however, not completely clear how different municipalities identify households which are eligible for FBS. Evidence suggests that many municipalities currently provide services to all households with a monthly income of less than R1500 per month.

Transformation: African People in the Western Cape. An Overview

Sabie Surtee and Martin J Hall
WP 10/141, December 2010

This paper is based on data from interviews with a number of mostly Western Cape based companies and employees with the objective of understanding the barriers to the achievement of employment equity for African people.

Labour Reform in South Africa: Measuring Regulation and a Synthesis of Policy Suggestions

Haroon Bhorat and Halton Cheadle
WP 09/139, September 2009

Even though the South African economy is formally categorised as an upper-middle income country, it has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world. The economy’s unemployment rate stands officially at 26.7 per cent and 38.8 per cent. This characteristic, more than any other, has placed market regulation high on the agenda of pertinent policy issues in South Africa.

Income and Non-Income Inequality in Post-Apartheid South Africa: What are the Drivers and Possible Policy Interventions?

Haroon Bhorat, Carlene Van Der Westhuizen and Toughedah Jacobs
WP 09/138, August 2009

Analysis using data from the 1995 and 2000 Income and Expenditure Surveys has found a significant increase in income inequality over the period and, further, that this increase in inequality eroded any significant poverty-reduction gains from higher economic growth.

Understanding the Efficiency and Effectiveness of the Dispute Resolution System in South Africa: An Analysis of CCMA Data

Haroon Bhorat, Kalie Pauw and Liberty Mncube
WP 09/137, July 2009

This paper, while broadly located within reforming the labour market policy debate, is specifically focused on one aspect of the labour regulatory regime, namely the dispute resolution system. Hence, we attempt to understand the efficiency and effectiveness of the country’s institutionalised dispute resolution body, the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA).

A Synthesis of Current Issues in the Labour Regulatory Environment

Haroon Bhorat and Carlene Van Der Westhuizen
WP 09/136, February 2009

During 2006 and 2007, a selection of research papers, in the main written by labour law experts, have provided critical input and guidance on the nature of the debate around the efficiency of the labour regulatory environment in South Africa.

Analysing Wage Formation in the South African Labour Markets: The Role of Bargaining Councils

Haroon Bhorat, Carlene Van Der Westhuizen and Sumayya Goga
WP 09/135, January 2009

The role of bargaining councils, the central pillar of collective bargaining in South Africa, in the formation of wages is important in the context of high unemployment rates in South Africa. In this study we find that while institutionalised collective bargaining system covered substantially more formal sector workers in 2005 (30 percent) compared to 1995 (15 percent), this still meant that less than a third of the formally employed were covered by bargaining councils.

An Analysis of Commission for Conciliation Mediation and Arbitration Awards

Ian Macun, Daniel Lopes and Paul Benjamin
WP 08/134, August 2008

This paper reports on research that involved the analysis of 873 Commission for Conciliation Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA) arbitration awards sampled from unfair dismissal and unfair labour practice cases for the years 2003 to 2005. The sample of awards was selected in proportion to the case load of each of the Provincial offices of the CCMA.

Poverty and 'Second Economy' in South Africa: An Attempt to Clarify Applicable Concepts and Quantify Extent of Relevant Challenges

Vusi Gumede
WP 08/133, June 2008

In brief, the paper firstly summarises old and new theoretical and technical issues on measuring poverty, secondly analyses poverty from different perspectives and highlights various research findings on poverty trends in South Africa and thirdly clarifies the notion of ‘second economy’ and attempts to ‘measure’ it.

Seta Review

Carmel Marock, Candice Harrison-Train, Prof Bobby Soobrayan and Jonothan Gunthorpe
WP 08/132, May 2008

The paper argues that significant progress has been achieved by SETAs and the Skills Development system.

Costing, Comparing and Competing: Developing an Approach to the Benchmarking of Labour Market Regulation

Paul Benjamin and Jan Theron
WP 07/131, November 2007

The World Bank’s Doing Business survey seeks to measure and compare the costs to business of various types of regulation, including labour regulation. As such it is an important driver of labour market ‘reform’ globally and in South Africa. It may also be encouraging a tendency of different systems of regulation to converge.

The State of Collective Bargaining in South Africa: An Empirical and Conceptual Study of Collective Bargaining

Shane Godfrey, Jan Theron and Margareet Visser
WP 07/130, November 2007

The research examines the current state of collective bargaining, the nature of existing bargaining structures, alternative models that have developed, and the problems being experienced in the current system.

Consumer Price Inflation across the Income Distribution in South Africa

Morne Oosthuizen
WP 07/129, November 2007

By monitoring the price changes experienced by some representative household, consumer price indices provide an important measure of changing purchasing power within a given economy. Group price indices offer one method of more accurately reflecting the inflation experiences of specific types of households, such as poor households, elderly households or households with children, for example.

Welfare Shifts in the Post-Apartheid South Africa: A Comprehensive Measurement of Changes

Haroon Bhorat, Carlene Van Der Westhuizen and Sumayya Goga
WP 07/128, October 2007

The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive measure of shifts in welfare in post-apartheid South Africa by examining changes in both income and non-income welfare between 1993 and 2005. Research considering the changes in non-income welfare in the post-apartheid South Africa has found significant increases in the levels of non-income welfare, driven to a large extend by the increased delivery of basic services by government since 1994.

Expanding the Social Security Net in South Africa: Opportunities, Challenges and Constraints

Kalie Pauw and Liberty Ncube
WP 07/127, September 2007

Rapid increases in government expenditure on social security between 2000 and 2006 has further increased poor households’ reliance on welfare grants and has been important in the fight against poverty. Already there is evidence of a substitution taking place within the social budget: expenditure on education and health seems to have declined in favour of increased welfare transfer expenditure.

The Impact of Growth and Redistribution on Poverty and Inequality in South Africa

Kalie Pauw and Liberty Ncube
WP 07/126, August 2007

This country study evaluates the experience of the South African economy with respect to growth, poverty and inequality trends since the advent of democracy in 1994.

Setas - A Vehicle for the Skills Revolution?

Renee Grawitzky
WP 07/125, July 2007

Sector Education and Training Authorities (Setas), established in terms of the Skills Development Act, 97 of 1998, were launched amid much fanfare and expectation of delivery towards achieving a skills revolution in the country.

The International Literature on Skills Training and the Scope for South African Application

Sean Archer
WP 07/124, July 2007

This paper aims to place, in the South African policy context, selected issues from the international literature on skills training. The main lessons are that skills training resembles education in being partly a public good.

Sticking to the Facts: Official and Unofficial Stories about Poverty and Unemployment in South Africa

Charles Meth
WP 07/123, June 2007

The major cause of poverty is unemployment. This paper looks at aspects of the way government responds to claims that are made, chiefly by academics, about poverty and unemployment. Official statistics on poverty and unemployment enjoy little favour among senior politicians and civil servants.

Have Pro-Poor Health Policies Improves the Targeting of Spending and the Effective Delivery of Health Care in South Africa?

Ronelle Burger and Christelle Grobler
WP 07/122, June 2007

Since 1994 there have been a number of radical changes in the public health care system in South Africa. Budgets have been reallocated, decision making was decentralised, the clinic network was expanded and user fees for primary health care were abolished.

Skills Shortages in South Africa: A Literature Review

Reza Daniels
WP 07/121, May 2007

This paper conducts a review of the literature on skills shortages in South Africa. It is demonstrated that different Government departments have different views concerning the definition of skills shortages. This is largely due to the omission in any official government literature of tying the concept of “skills shortages” to productivity.

Unemployment, Education and Skills Constraints in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Rosa Dias and Dorrit Posel
WP 07/120, March 2007

This paper investigates the relationship between education and unemployment in post-apartheid South Africa, and probes the argument that employment growth has been inhibited particularly by skills constraints. We use probit regression analysis to show that higher education protected against unemployment in both 1995 and 2003, and that overall, the relative benefits to tertiary education rose over the period.

Regulating Flexibility and Small Business: Revisiting the LRA and BCEA. A Response to Halton Cheadle's Concept Paper

Andre van Niekerk
WP 07/119, March 2007

This paper is a response, from a business perspective, to Halton Cheadle’s concept paper titled ‘Regulating flexibility: Revisiting the LRA and the BCEA’ (DPRU Working Paper 06/109). This paper seeks to respond to each of the issues raised by Cheadle, and to his reflections on each. As previously noted, the paper has been drafted to present a business perspective.

Women in South African Labour Market, 1995 - 2005

Carlene Van Der Westhuizen, Sumayya Goga and Morne Oosthuizen
WP 07/118, February 2007

The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the changes in the status of women in the South African labour market between 1995 and 2005. The report finds that the feminisation of the South African labour force between 1995 and 2005 has been driven specifically by greater numbers of African women entering the labour force.

Wage Trends in Post-Apartheid South Africa: Constructing an Earnings Series from Household Survey Data

Rulof Burger and Derek Yu
WP 07/117, February 2007

This paper examines South African wage earnings trends using all the available post-1994 household survey datasets. This allows us to identify and address the sources of data inconsistencies across surveys in order to construct a more comparable earnings time series.

An Exploratory Look into Labour Market Regulation

Anton Roskam
WP 07/116, January 2007

This paper welcomes the fact that the discussion about the labour market and small business has broadened in scope. It considers some of the suggestions made by Cheadle (2006) in his recent concept paper. These include dismissals, unfair labour practices, appointments and promotions and collective bargaining.

Graduate Unemployment in the Context of Skills Shortages, Education and Training: Findings from a Firm Survey

Kalie Pauw, Haroon Bhorat, Sumayya Goga, Liberty Ncube, Morne Oosthuizen and Carlene Van Der Westhuizen
WP 06/115, November 2006

The paper reflects on the findings from a firm survey conducted among twenty of South Africa’s largest firms across a range of sectors. The survey formed part of research conducted by the Development Policy Research Unit on graduate unemployment in South Africa.

Graduate Unemployment in the Face of Skill Shortages: A Labour Market Paradox

Kalie Pauw, Morne Oosthuizen and Carlene Van Der Westhuizen
WP 06/114, November 2006

There is consensus among analysts that South Africa’s unemployment is structural in the sense that the unemployed generally possess lower skills than what is required in the marketplace. In the context of increasing demand for skilled workers due to technical progress and the need to become more competitive globally, graduate unemployment would be expected to fall.

The Regulatory Environment and SMMEs. Evidence from South African Firm Level Data

Neil Rankin
WP 06/113, September 2006

The paper specifically examines: labour regulations and their relationship with employment and investment; trade regulations; permits and licences for businesses; visa regulations; the predictability of regulatory application; and the costs of regulation. It also investigates the ways firms respond to regulations.

The Impacts of Sector-Specific Policies and Regulations on the Growth of SMEs in Eight Sectors of the South African Economy

Strategic Business Partnerships for Growth in Africa (SBP)
WP 06/112, July 2006

The paper aims to identify the impacts of sector-specific policies and regulations on the growth of – and job creation by – SMEs in eight sectors of the South African economy. Where appropriate and, where possible, impacts are quantified. The aim is also to develop suggestions for policy changes and regulatory reforms which would reduce the regulatory cost burden on these SMEs and permit them to grow and take on workers more readily.

Risks to Global Trade and Implications for South Africa's Economy and Policy

Jeremy Wakeford
WP 06/111, July 2006

The past two decades have witnessed an unprecedented globalisation of trade in goods and services. This process has been driven, inter alia, by technology, ideology and the availability of relatively cheap energy. By extrapolating this trend, one may expect further integration of world markets and increasingly unhindered international trade.

The Regulatory Efficiency of the CCMA: A Statistical Analysis of the CCMA's CMS Database

Paul Benjamin and Carola Gruen
WP 06/110, June 2006

The study involves a statistical analysis of the case management system (CMS) data base of the Commission for Conciliation Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA) for the financial years 2001/2, 2003/4 and 2004/5.

Regulated Flexibility and Small Business: Revisiting the LRA and the BCEA

Halton Cheadle
WP 06/109, June 2006

The object of the paper is to identify the conceptual underpinnings of the labour law reforms of the 1990s, particularly the concept of regulated flexibility, and the changes to the labour market since then in order to review the performance of those reforms and to propose changes to more appropriately regulate that market.

Shifts in Non-Income Welfare in South Africa: 1993 - 2004

Haroon Bhorat, Carlene Van Der Westhuizen and Pranushka Naidoo
WP 06/108, May 2006

The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of the shifts in non-income welfare that have occurred over the period 1993 to 2004. This analysis serves as a complement to existing research which has focused on shifts in income poverty and inequality in the post-apartheid period. In addition, the study is one of only a few that provides a complete overview of the first decade of democracy by means of the comprehensive time period it covers.

Impact of Municipal Regulations on SMMEs

AFReC, MCA & BEES
WP 06/107, May 2006

The regulatory impact of municipalities on small enterprise is inextricably linked to their developmental and service delivery roles. A general lack of information about municipal regulations and their enforcement was also discerned among the small businesses interviewed.

Conditions of Employment and Small Business: Coverage, Compliance and Exemptions

Shane Godfrey, Johann Maree and Jan Theron
WP 06/106, March 2006

The research examines the different forms of regulation of conditions of employment (i.e. bargaining council agreements, the Basic Conditions of Employment Act (BCEA), and sectoral determinations) and what sort of accommodation they make for small firms.

Recent findings on Tax-Related Regulatory Burden on SMMEs in South Africa: Literature Review and Policy Options

Doubell Chamberlain and Anja Smith
WP 06/105, March 2006

Regulatory compliance costs impose a deadweight burden on firms and therefore should be minimised. In achieving this goal, it is necessary to embrace a process of smart regulation, rather than focus on deregulation. Tax compliance cost is one type of regulatory costs that is often viewed to have a large negative impact on SMMEs.

Trends in Poverty and Inequality Since the Political Transition

Servaas Van Der Berg, Ronelle Burger, Rulof Burger, Megan Louw and Derek Yu
WP 06/104, March 2006

Using a constructed data series and another data series based on the All Media and Products surveys (AMPS), this paper explores trends in poverty and income distribution over the post-transition period. To steer clear of an unduly optimistic conclusion, assumptions are chosen that would tend to show the least decline in poverty.

The Post-Apartheid Labour Market: 1995 - 2004

Morne Oosthuizen
WP 06/103, February 2006

This paper seeks to investigate some of the changes that have occurred within the South African labour market in the post-apartheid era between 1995 and 2004 and some of the challenges the labour market presents in the attainment of shared growth, updating previous work by Bhorat and Oosthuizen (2004).

Second Best? Trends and Linkages in the Informal Economy in South Africa

Richard Devey, Caroline Skinner and Imraan Valodia
WP 06/102, February 2006

The idea of a second economy has become a feature of recent government economic policy. In this paper we focus on one important element of the second economy – the informal economy. We analyse the nature of the informal economy in South Africa, providing some descriptive statistics and analysis to highlight the nature and extent of the informal economy.

Poverty and Well-being in Post-Apartheid South Africa: An Overview of Data, Outcomes and Policy

Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur
WP 05/101, October 2005

This is an overview of poverty and well-being in the first decade of post-apartheid South Africa. It is an introduction to a volume that brings together some of the most prominent academic research done on this topic for the 10-year review process in South Africa. This overview highlights three key aspects of the picture that the detailed research paints.

Have Labour Market Outcomes Affected Household Structure in South Africa? A Descriptive Analysis of Households

Farah Pirouz
WP 05/100, October 2005

This paper seeks to investigate how the demography of households relates to individual labour market outcomes. We comprehensively examine household size and structures in the October Household Surveys 1995, 1997, 1999 and the Labour Force Surveys September 2001 and 2002.

The Effects of Minimum Wages on the Employment and Earnings of South Africa's Domestic Service Workers

Tom Hertz
WP 05/099, October 2005

Minimum wages have been in place for South Africa’s one million domestic service workers since November of 2002. Using data from seven waves of the Labour Force Survey, this paper documents that the real hourly wages, average monthly earnings, and total earnings of all employed domestic workers have risen since the regulations came into effect, while hours of work per week and employment have fallen.

Market Failure, Human Capital, and Job Search Dynamics in South Africa: The Case of Duncan Village

Patrick Duff and David Fryer
WP 05/098, September 2005

This paper argues that the economic literature on unemployment and poverty in South Africa has under-explored potentially important feedback mechanisms which, because they serve to change the structure of labour markets and affect human capital trajectories, serve to endogenise labour market exclusion.

'Two Million Net New Jobs': A Reconsideration of the Rise in Employment in South Africa, 1995 - 2003

Daniela Casale, Colette Muller and Dorrit Posel
WP 05/097, August 2005

In this paper we investigate labour market trends in South Africa between October 1995 and March 2003. In particular, we evaluate the South African governments claim that over this period, the economy created two million net new jobs. Using the same household survey data as that used to generate official employment estimates, we also find an almost two million net increase in employment.

Subjective Well-being Poverty versus Income Poverty and Capabilities Poverty?

Geeta Kingdon and John Knight
WP 05/096, July 2005

The conventional approach of economists to the measurement of poverty in poor countries is to use measures of income or consumption. This paper asks: to what extent are these different concepts measurable, to what extent are they competing and to what extent complementary, and is it possible for them to be accommodated within an encompassing framework?

Community, Comparisons and Subjective Well-being in a Divided Society

Geeta Kingdon and John Knight
WP 05/095, July 2005

Using a South African data set, the paper poses six questions about the determinants of subjective well-being. Much of the paper is concerned with the role of relative concepts. We find that comparator income – measured as average income of others in the local residential cluster – enters the household’s utility function positively but that income of more distant others (others in the district or province) enters negatively.

Measuring recent Changes in South African Inequality and Poverty using 1996 and 2001 Census Data

Leibbrandt, Laura Poswell, Pranushka Naidoo, Matthew Welch and Ingrid Woolard
WP 05/094, June 2005

The paper analyses poverty and inequality changes in South Africa for the period 1996 to 2001 using Census data. As regards population group inequality, within-group inequality has increased; while between-group inequality has decreased (inequality has also increased in each province and across the rural/urban divide).

The Post-Apartheid South African Labour Market

Morne Oosthuizen and Haroon Bhorat
WP 05/093, April 2005

Since the demise of apartheid, the South African economy has undergone significant changes with the government implementing various policies aimed at redressing the injustices of the past, fleshing out the welfare system and improving competitiveness as the country becomes increasingly integrated into the global economy.

Poverty, Inequality and Labour Markets in Africa: A Descriptive Overview

Haroon Bhorat
WP 05/092, March 2005

This paper examines, through the application of available data, the poverty, inequality and labour market challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The paper illustrates that apart from levels of poverty and inequality that are inordinately high in SSA, the region is also beset with perhaps the more worrying problem of accounting for almost all of the world’s ultra-poor: namely those individuals living on less than half of the standard $1 a day poverty line.

Estimating an Earnings Function from Coarsened Data by an Interval Censored Regression Procedure. Data

Reza C Daniels and Sandrine Rospabe
WP 05/091, February 2005

This paper estimates an earnings function where the dependent variable is a mix of point and interval data using an interval regression model based on a pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation procedure. The analysis uses the 1999 OHS, and takes into account point and interval income observations, as well as design features of the survey including stratification, clustering and weights.

Homing in on the Core - Households Incomes, Income Sources and Geography in South Africa

Sten Dieden
WP 04/090, December 2004

The focus of this study is on household income generation among previously disadvantaged households in South Africa. Households’ income sources are divided into categories that reflect differing extents of association with the core economy.

Half Measures: The ANC's Unemployment and Poverty Reduction Goals

Charles Meth
WP 04/089, December 2004

Simulations suggest that under the most optimistic conditions, halving the official rate of unemployment would require 3.7 million jobs to be created between 2004 and 2014. Halving the number of expanded unemployed under pessimistic assumptions about the growth rate of the economically active would require 11 million jobs in the same period.

Internal Migration to the Gauteng Province

Morne Oosthuizen and Pranushka Naidoo
WP 04/088, November 2004

Gauteng, South Africa's economic powerhouse, has long been dependent on immigration to supply its labour requirements, a phenomenon deeply rooted in the province's early economic history and the development of mining and heavy industry. Although migration has contributed to the development of the province, it also poses challenges to the provincial government partly through the added burden on state-financed services and programmes.

Emergent Black Affluence and Social Mobility in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Rulof Burger, Ronelle Burger and Servaas Van Der Berg
WP 04/087, November 2004

Firstly, the paper at tempts to identify the features that distinguish the affluent and specifically the black affluent from the rest of the population with a descriptive analysis. The paper investigates how affluence predictors vary between different race groups. It shows a dramatic increase in black affluence.

Co-ordination Failure and Employment in South Africa

David Fryer and Desire Vencatachellum
WP 04/086, June 2004

South Africa lost more than 890,000 jobs, but saw an increase in the number of skilled workers from 1989 to 1999. We argue that this is the consequence of well-documented acute apartheid-era distortions which led to a current coordination failure where (i) firms are locked into a mostly skillintensive technology where they have very little demand for semi-skilled and unskilled labour, and (ii) there are too few semi-skilled and skilled blacks.

Productivity, Wages and Employment in South Africa's Manufacturing Sector, 1970 - 2002

Jeremy Wakeford
WP 04/085, March 2004

This paper investigates the relationship between labour productivity, average real wages and employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector, using cointegrating VAR and VECM econometric techniques. A long-run equilibrium relationship was found between real wages and productivity, with an elasticity of 0,38 indicating that productivity has grown more rapidly than wages.

What has the feminisation of the labour market 'brought' women in South Africa? Trends in labour force participation, employment and earnings, 1995 - 2001

Daniela Casale
WP 04/084, March 2004

There has been a dramatic increase in the labour force participation of women in South Africa since the mid-1990s. Male participation has also been increasing but at a substantially slower rate, such that a feminisation of the labour force has occurred, mirroring a more general global trend that has been occurring since World War Two.

Poverty and Labour Market Markers of HIV+ Households: An Exploratory Methodological Analysis

Haroon Bhorat and Najma Shaikh
WP 04/083, February 2004

This study, through an exploratory but promising methodology, provides a tentative analysis of the relationship between HIV, poverty and labour markets. The paper illustrates that the relationship between poverty, labour markets and HIV is not homogenous but multi-dimensional in character.

The Post-Apartheid Challenge: Labour Demand Trends in the South African Labour Market, 1995 - 1999

Haroon Bhorat
WP 03/082, August 2003

The paper attempts to provide a descriptive overview of absolute and relative shifts in labour demand in the South African economy over the post-apartheid period, 1995-1999. The paper debunks the myth that the domestic economy is characterised by ‘jobless growth’ in this period.

Expected Labour Demands in South Africa 1998 - 2003

Morne Oosthuizen
WP 03/081, August 2003

The current misalignment of labour supply and demand in South Africa constitutes one of the factors that hold back the countrys economic growth. Consequently, efforts have recently been made to estimate future labour demand so that current policies are designed in such a way as to attempt to minimise the skills mismatch.

The Contribution of Technikons to Human Resources Development in South Africa

Charlton Koen
WP 03/080, August 2003

This paper documents the phenomenal contribution that technikons have made to the development of human resources in South Africa, particularly high level human resources throughout the period of the 1990s. This is done by examining the enrolment and qualifications profile of technikons over a fifteen year period.

Sector Education Training Authorities and the Delivery of Training: Preliminary Remarks on the New Skills Dispensation in South Africa

Paul Lundall
WP 03/079, August 2003

The workplace training dispensation that is evolving in South Africa represents a significant advance over previous initiatives in the country. While it is funded on the basis of payroll levies, the relatively sophisticated institutional structure in the administration of the system has caused delays in its set-up and operation.

The Impact of Privatisation and Regulatory Reform on Wage Premia in State-Owned Enterprises in South Africa

Damian Hattingh, James Hodge and Sandrine Rospabe
WP 03/078, July 2003

Whilst much has been said about the employment effects of the privatisation of state-owned enterprises in South Africa, the debate has largely overlooked the impact of these events on the wage levels of those workers that retain their jobs in the restructuring process. This paper estimates earnings functions for workers in the South African economy to determine the impact of these changes.

Earnings and Employment Dynamics for Africans in Post-Apartheid South Africa: A Panel Study of Kwa Zulu-Natal

Paul L Cichello, Gary S Fields and Murray Leibbrandt
WP 03/077, May 2003

The labour market is central in determining individual and household well-being in South Africa. Therefore, an understanding of earnings and employment dynamics is a key policy issue. However, the absence of panel data has constrained empirical work addressing these topics. This paper conducts such a study using a regional panel data set, the KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study (KIDS).

Returns to Education in South Africa: Evidence from the Machibisa Township

David Fryer and Desire Vencatachellum
WP 03/076, May 2003

We develop a model where blacks in the private sector earn no returns to education if there are relatively too few educated blacks. Using a sample of black females in the late apartheid Kwa Zulu to control for labour market specific effects, we find that more than a fifth of labour market participants are self-employed. There are no returns to primary education and positive returns for the first two years of secondary education.

Estimates for Poverty Alleviation in South Africa, with an Application to a Universal Income Grant

Haroon Bhorat
WP 03/075, April 2003

Through the use of the standard tools of poverty analysis, this paper attempts to firstly measure the minimum financial contribution required from the state to eliminate poverty in the society. Secondly, we measure the absolute and relative household poverty impact of instituting a universal income grant, set at different monthly values.

What has been happening to Internal Labour Migration in South Africa, 1993 - 1999?

Dorrit Posel and Daniela Casale
WP 03/074, April 2003

This paper attempts to redress the lack of research into temporary labour migration at a national level in South Africa. Using the 1993 Project for Statistics on Living Standards and Development and the 1995, 1997 and 1999 October Household Surveys, we explore three broad areas: the extent of labour migration over the period 1993 to 1999; the characteristics of migrant workers and how these have changed over time; and the economic ties that labour migrants have maintained with their households of origin.

Education and Socio-Economic Differentials: A Study of School Performance in the Western Cape

Servaas Van Der Berg and Ronelle Burger
WP 03/073, March 2003

Not surprisingly, the education system is widely perceived to be the major tool to overcome human capital and labour market inequalities in South Africa. This paper asks how well the education system accomplishes this goal. The first part of the paper examines human capital differentials between races and provides evidence of persistent race-based educational attainment and quality differentials.

Measuring South Africa's Informal Sector: An Analysis of National Household Surveys

Colette Muller
WP 03/071, January 2003

This study uses three key South African national household survey instruments – the 1993 Project Statistics for Statistics of Living Standards and Development, the 1995, 1997 and 1999 October Household Surveys, and the September 2000 Labour Force Survey – to identify the problems involved in capturing information on who works in the informal sector and the kind of work they do.

Cape International Convention Centre: The Projected Economic Distribution

Barry Standish
WP 02/070, August 2002

Towards the end of 2000, a study was commissioned into the projected economic impact of the new Cape Town International Convention Centre. The study set out to measure the macroeconomic impact of the Convention Centre as well as identify industries that could be promoted by the existence of the Centre.

Special Problems in Securing A Reduction in Working Hours: The Case of Security Workers

Paul Lundall
WP 02/069, July 2002

The paper considers the complex process of introducing a regime of shorter working hours in the private security sector in South Africa. While the process of reducing the working hours of security workers in 1999 was bold, there is potential for real gains and losses to be derived from the process and this depends on the system and levels of compensation that are negotiated for the period of transition to the new schedules in working hours.

Employment, Wages and Skills Development: Firm-Specific Effects - Evidence from Two Firm Surveys in South Africa

Haroon Bhorat and Paul Lundall
WP 02/068, June 2002

The paper explores the inter and intra firm dynamics that are instrumental in shaping the determination of skills training within the South African labour market. The essential starting point is to show that the size of the enterprise and nature of the economic sector in which these enterprises operate, sets conditions on the regimes of enterprise training and skills development.

Foreign Investments in SADC

Samson Muradzikwa
WP 02/067, June 2002

This paper explores some of the key issues related to FDI in Southern Africa. It takes a look at comparative patterns and trends of investment flows in developing regions (including the SADC). In addition, an account of the institutional and regulatory framework in the SADC region and consequences for investment flows into SADC, is provided.

An Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of the Clothing Textile Industry in SADC

Eckart Naumann
WP 02/066, April 2002

This paper focuses on the clothing and textile industry in the SADC region, with specific reference to the locational characteristics and developments of these two industry sectors over the last decade. The study links the economic and spatial characteristics of the clothing and textile industries, looks at the current situation and analyses the drivers and barriers to industrialisation and location.

Why is Youth Unemployment so High and Unequally spread in South Africa?

Cecil Mlatsheni and Sandrine Rospabe
WP 02/065, May 2002

Not only does the South African labour market exhibit a high unemployment rate for the young, according to international standards, but it also shows evidence of large inequalities between age groups, races and genders. Thus, this paper first seeks to explain these stylised factsinvestigating the microeconomic determinants of employment for different groups of the population.

Transaction Costs and Clothing and Textile Trade in SADC

Shannon Tagg
WP 02/064, April 2002

This working paper looks at clothing and textile trade in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Clothing and textile production is important in terms of employment and development, and thus they have been priority sectors since the SADCC inception in 1980. Evidence of intra-regional trade is presented. The scope for increased trade is then discussed and transaction costs are examined as one of the major factors restricting this increased trade.

A Decomposition of Growth of the Real Wage Rate for South Africa: 1970 - 2000

Dipak Mazumdar and Dirk van Seventer
WP 02/063, March 2002

This paper examines the potential trade-off between growth in employment and growth in wages. In order to assess the trade-off between employment growth and real wage growth, we make use of a simple decomposition model, following Mazumdar (2000), in which real wage growth is determined by growth in real value added, employment growth, a trend in the wage share of value added and a relative price effect.

A Comparison of Wage Levels and Wage Inequality in the Public and Private Sectors, 1995 - 2000

Ingrid Woolard
WP 02/062, March 2002

This paper sets out to investigate relative wages and wage dispersion for formal sector workers in the private and public sectors. The paper explicitly measures the size of the public sector wage premium and offers some reasons for its existence. It also attempts to document the changing pattern of wage differentials between public and private sector employees between 1995 and 2000.

Achieving Employment Equity in the Public Service: A study of changes between 1995 and 2001

Keith Thompson and Ingrid Woolard
WP 02/061, January 2002

This paper will seek to analyse the performance of the public sector in implementing affirmative action policies intended to promote employment equity. This will be done primarily by examining the pattern of changes in public sector employment over the past five years.

Trade, Technology and Wage Inequality in South Africa

Tahir Abdi and Lawrence Edwards
WP 02/060, January 2002

Significant declines in employment have coincided with trade liberalisation in South Africa stimulating many debates on possible causal relationships between the two. Existing research has, however, focused on explaining employment trends rather than changes in the relative wage of less skilled to skilled labour. Further, the role of technology in influencing relative wages has been neglected.

Labour Market Reform and the Evolution of the Racial Wage Hierarchy in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Paul Allanson and Jonathan Atkins
WP 01/059, December 2001

The central theme of this working paper is the way that the racial wage hierarchy evolved in South Africa over the period 1993 to 1999 amongst full-time regular employees of normal working age, but excluding those in the primary sector and the defence forces.

The Southern African regional clothing and textile industry: Case studies of Malawi, Mauritius and Zimbabwe

Samson Muradzikwa
WP 01/058, December 2001

This paper seeks to establish the consequences of a changing trade and investment environment for the clothing and textile industry in Southern Africa. The study covers Malawi, Mauritius and Zimbabwe - the three largest producers of textiles and garments outside South Africa.

The role of intra-industry trade and cross-border supply chains in facilitating regional integration in the SADC markets

Martine Visser
WP 01/057, November 2001

Previous studies have indicated that there may be untapped potential for exports from non-SACU SADC countries to the SACU market. The share of non-SACU markets in exports to the rest of the world has been increasing while the SACU share has remained the same. Concerns have been raised that the size of the South African economy and the net trade surplus of the Customs Union relative to that of the other SADC members may lead to polarization within the region.

Regional supply chain development: A case study of the clothing and textile industry in SADC

Martine Visser
WP 01/056, November 2001

The textile, clothing production, sugar, and agro-processing largely account for intra-regional cross-border supply chains, and drives trade within the region. These industries hold potential for strengthening ties throughout the region by integrating value-added supply chains and intra-industry trade (IIT) across borders.

Consumer Indebtedness Among Urban South African Households: A Descriptive Overview

Reza Daniels
WP 01/055, September 2001

This working paper analyses consumer indebtedness among urban South African households. The theoretical basis of the topic lies within consumption theory, and the empirical exercises are conducted on Part Two of the October Household Survey – the Income and Expenditure Survey (Statistics South Africa, 1995) and an adjusted 1999 dataset constructed by Wefa Southern Africa.

The role of education and fertility in the participation and employment of African women in South Africa

Cecil Mlatsheni and Murray Leibbrandt
WP 01/054, September 2001

Policy makers are well aware that creating jobs is an important priority if the health of our economy is to be preserved and improved. However, the first step towards a successful strategy of employment creation is an understanding of the labour market. Much attention has been devoted to analysing the unemployment/employment divide without sufficient attention being given to labour market participation itself.

Inflation and the role of wages in South Africa: A co-integration analysis

Ben Smit and Stan du Plessis
WP 01/053, September 2001

An explanation of inflation that focuses on the costs of production, wages (or unit labour costs) plays a central role. In South Africa, the recent change to an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework and the relative strong role of trade unions has increased the need to understand and quantify the interaction between inflation and wages.

Evaluation of Spatial Development Initiatives: Case studies of the Maputo Development Corridor and the West Coast Investment Initiative

David Bek and Ian Taylor
WP 01/052, August 2001

Spatial Development Initiatives (SDIs) form an integral part of the South African government strategy to attract investment. SDIs are claimed to be short-term and targeted undertakings to foster economic growth. This working paper reviews two SDI projects, namely the Maputo Development Corridor (MDC) and the West Coast Investment Initiative (WCII).

The Determinants of Intra-Regional Trade in Southern African with Specific Reference to South Africa and the Rest of the Region

Rashad Cassim
WP 01/051, June 2001

The paper puts forward a case for more attention to be paid to fundamental structural factors that will determine the scope and success of any regional integration initiative in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The paper provides a review of current estimates of trade potential in the region and contrasts this with the author's own estimates of intra-regional trade.

Key Issues facing Sugar Industries in the Southern African Development Community

Michael Matsebula
WP 01/050, May 2001

The objective of this working paper is to highlight the major issues facing sugar industries in SADC. This is achieved within a framework that recognises the existence of distortions in global sugar markets. To this end, a conceptual framework whose central pillar is the existence of market distortions is presented. It is followed by a description of the characteristics of the SADC sugar industries and the kind of distortions that they face in the real world.

Racial Wage Discrimination in South Africa: Before and After the First Democratic Election

Gaute Erichsen and Jeremy Wakeford
WP 01/049, May 2001

Apartheid in South Africa was formally discarded by the first free election in 1994. Prior to 1994, discrimination in the labour market was embodied in a number of policies (pass laws, occupational colour barring etc.). While such polices have been eliminated by the ANC government, it is likely that the eradication of racial wage discrimination altogether will be a lengthy process.

Making Racial Wage Relations Fair in South Africa: A Focus on the Role of Trade Unions

Sandrine Rospabe
WP 01/048, April 2001

The aim of this working paper is to highlight the influence of South African trade unions on African and White earnings as well as their role in the reduction of wage inequalities and discrimination between these two groups. The econometric analysis utilises a 1997 microeconomic data set. Findings show firstly that the union wage premium for African male workers lies between 13 percent and 20 percent, depending on the methods used.

Institutional Aspects of the Maputo Development Corridor

Fredrik Soderbaum
WP 01/047, April 2001

Maputo Development Corridor (MDC), what actors and stakeholders are involved in the policy- and decision-making processes, and draws some lessons for future development corridors and spatial development initiatives (SDIs) in the broader Southern African region.

Poverty Alleviation in the Subsistence Fisheries Sector: A Microeconometric Analysis

Reza Daniels
WP 01/046, March 2001

This working paper applies the Foster Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) (1984) index of poverty measures to the subsistence fishing industry in South Africa in order to evaluate the impact of resource transfers on poverty. The sample of subsistence communities was identified by the Chief Directorate: Marine and Coastal Management of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism.

Competition Policy and Privatisation in the South African Water Industry

Beatrice Conradie, Jacqui Goldin, Anthony Leiman, Barry Standish and Martine Visser
WP 01/045, March 2001

The aim of this working paper is to investigate the optimal regulatory routes from a competition and public interest point of view for the South African water industry. The working paper presents the basic conditions of the water sector by outlining the main characteristics of water, providing an historical and international overview of water management in South Africa.

Public-private partnerships: Lessons from the Maputo Development Corridor Toll Road

Ian Taylor
WP 00/044, December 2000

Launched in 1995, Spatial Development Initiatives (SDIs) are currently the main vehicle used by the South African government to promote regional development. SDI project(s) purport to be short-term and targeted attempts to stimulate "growth" by creating globally competitive spatial entities, new investment, infrastructural development and job creation.

Wage premia and wage differentials in the South African Labour Market

Haroon Bhorat
WP 00/043, October 2000

The aim of this paper is to highlight wage trends and patterns in the South African labour market through examining wage premia and wage differentials. The analysis utilises data from the October Household Survey of 1995. Findings show that the regular race, gender and educational differentials arise when looking at median wages, with the racial wage gap being more severe than the gender wage gap.

Regional Trade Integration in Southern Africa: Critical Policy Issues

Paul Kalenga
WP 00/042, September 2000

The aim of this paper is to highlight key issues arising from regional trade integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as the concomitant policies required to facilitate the trade process. The paper highlights issues pertaining to distribution effects arising from integrating unequal partners and the need for open trade policies in order to realise potential positive spillovers.

Are Wage Adjustments an Effective Mechanism for Poverty Alleviation? Some Simulations for Domestic and Farm Workers

Haroon Bhorat
WP 00/041, September 2000

This paper utilises a basic simulation exercise to analyse the possible poverty and employment reducing effects, of instituting a minimum wage in the South African labour market. The simulation is undertaken for three groups of unskilled workers, namely domestic workers, farm workers and drivers.

Assessing the South African Brain Drain, a Statistical Comparison

Jean-Baptiste Meyer, Mercy Brown, David Kaplan
WP 00/040, July 2000

For several decades the analysis of the so-called brain drain has been hampered by measurement problems. It is now recognised that the official figures significantly underestimate the extent of the brain drain phenomenon and its increase since the political changes in the mid-1990's. This paper, using data from various reliable sources, provides new statistical evidence on the size of the brain drain from South Africa.

Macroeconomic policy and trade intergration in Southern Africa

Charles Harvey
WP 00/039, April 2000

The aim of this paper is to determine if macroeconomic policy convergence amongst member countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is required for establishing and sustaining a free trade area (FTA). The paper also investigates whether a restraining mechanism is required in order to compel member countries to have compatible macroeconomic policies.

The impact of the Maputo Development Corridor on freight flows: an initial investigation

Amanda Driver and Joao Gabriel de Barros
WP 00/038, March 2000

This paper provides an analysis of the effect of the Maputo Development Corridor (MDC) on freight flows between Mozambique and South Africa. By analysing the transport infrastructure of the MDC, this paper seeks to provide insight into the relationship between investment in infrastructure and economic growth.

Understanding the high tech sector in the Cape Metropolitan Region: a contribution to the development of a regional strategy for high tech industry

James Hodge and Amanda Driver
WP 00/037, March 2000

The aim of this working paper is to contribute to a strategy for developing the high tech sector in the Cape Metropolitan Region (CMR) through a better understanding of the high tech firms that already exist.

An Overview of the Role of Producer Services in the Petrochemicals Industry in South Africa: A Case Study of Sasol

James Hodge
WP 00/036, February 2000

The petrochemicals industry in South Africa has grown significantly over the past two decades, largely as a result of the expansion and diversification of the premier petrochemical producer - Sasol. This working paper examines the role that producer services have played in this growth.

An Overview of Producer Services in the Mining Industry in South Africa

Thomas E. Pogue
WP 00/035, February 2000

The mining industry has been at the heart of South Africa's economy for over 100 years. This working paper explores an aspect of the mining industry that has received little attention - the producer services used in production. It finds that producer services are a key part of the mining industry, especially in the exploration and commissioning stages.

Contemporary Labour Market Policy and Poverty in South Africa

Muzi Maziya
WP 99/034, December 1999

This paper outlines the recent labour market reforms in South Africa and discusses their likely impact on poverty and the working poor. Using an innovative framework developed elsewhere in the literature, the paper shows how labour market processes and outcomes can affect the level of household poverty in a country.

Measuring Poverty in South Africa

Ingrid Woolard and Murray Leibbrandt
WP 99/033, October 1999

This paper sets out the methodological issues for the measurement of poverty before presenting a poverty profile of South Africa. It tests the sensitivity of the poverty profile to choices around the metric used to measure well-being, the equivalence scale used and the level of the poverty line.

Modelling Vulnerability and Low Earnings in the South African Labour Market

Haroon Bhorat and Murray Leibbrandt
WP 99/032, October 1999

Drawing on a comparative overview of the earnings function work on South Africa, this article presents an alternative and comprehensive model of earnings in the South African labour market. The paper uses the standard Heckman two-step approach in trying to model participation, employment and earnings.

Household Incomes, Poverty and Inequality in a Multivariate Framework

Murray Leibbrandt and Ingrid Woolard
WP 99/031, December 1999

The existing work on household poverty and inequality in South Africa has shown that poverty and inequality differ markedly by race, location, education, gender of the head, household demographics and household labour market participation. However, it is important to try and go further than this listing of key correlates and to give any indication of the relative importance of these dimensions.

Social Policy to Address Poverty

Servaas Van Der Berg
WP 99/030, August 1999

This paper provides an analysis of the role of social policies in alleviating poverty in South Africa. In doing so, the paper assesses the contribution of education and social security in reducing poverty in the country.

The Present as a Legacy of the Past: The Labour Market, Inequality and Poverty in South Africa

Servaas Van Der Berg and Haroon Bhorat
WP 99/029

This paper provides an analysis of poverty in South Africa by focussing on the labour market. It seeks to understand inequality and poverty in contemporary South Africa by analysing the main factors that have contributed to these socio-economic outcomes. The paper shows that poverty and inequality are still widespread in South Africa, and have their origins in the labour market.

Regional Institutional Structure and Industrial Strategy: Richards Bay and the Spatial Development Initiatives

Peter V Hall
WP 99/028, August 1999

This paper provides an institutional analysis of the South African Spatial Development Initiative (SDI) policy. It deals, firstly, with the concept of regional institutional structure, secondly, with the SDI program in South Africa and how it attempts to address national industrial strategy concerns in a spatially redistributive fashion, and thirdly, describes the case study of the growth-pole bulk-export port of Richards Bay.

Correlates of Vulnerability in the South African Labour Market

Haroon Bhorat, Murray Leibbrandt
WP 99/027, May 1999

Using the October Household Survey of 1995 (OHS95), this paper seeks to understand the determinants of indigence in the South African labour market. To this end the study presents a description of the labour market, focusing on how covariates such as race, gender, education and location help explain the poverty observed in the labour market.

Public Expenditure and Poverty Alleviation in the South African Labour Market

Haroon Bhorat
WP 99/026, May 1999

The paper utilises a class of poverty measures to determine the potential cost to the fiscus, in 1995 Rands, of alleviating poverty in South Africa. The simulations are undertaken for both households and individuals in the society, by the different covariates of poverty.

Understanding Contemporary Household Inequality in South Africa

Murray Leibbrandt, Haroon Bhorat and Ingrid Woolard
WP 99/025, May 1999

This paper uses various decomposition techniques to understand the nature of household inequality in contemporary South Africa. It examines, firstly, the importance of race in overall inequality; secondly, the contribution of major income sources to national inequality; and thirdly, the relationship between inequality, poverty and the labour market.

The SADC's Revealed Comparative Advantage in Regional and International Trade

Nicole Valentine
WP 98/015, November 1998

This paper forms part of the DPRU Industrial Strategy Project: Phase Two.

Allocating Community Benefits: Institutional Options in Support of the Empo-Tourism Models

Sean Eliffe, Peter Rutsch and Geoff de Beer
WP 98/014, February 1998

This paper is the fourth in a series of issue papers prepared within the SDI Policy Programme. It aims to support and enhance the application of work already completed on economic empowerment and to guide/influence the planning and development processes applied in respect of each of the individual tourism led SDI's.

Income and Price Elasticities in Manufacturing Exports

Haroon Bhorat
WP 98/013, February 1998

The cornerstone of the South African government's economic policy lies in the Growth Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) programme.

An Assessment of the Factors that Promoted Industrial Development in Richards Bay

Jayanthi Aniruth and Justin Barnes
WP 97/012, December 1997

The research findings and policy recommendatons presented in this report owe their existence to the Industrial Strategy Project (ISP), who commissioned the study as a mechanism for providing input into the Spatial Development Initiative (SDI) policy framework nationally.

Tourism Development and the Empowerment of Local Communities

Geoff de Beer and Sean Eliffe
WP 97/011, August 1997

This paper has been prepared as part of the Spatial Development Initiatives (SDI) policy research program.

Some International Perspectives on Tourism Led Socio-Economic Development

Geoff de Beer and Brian Wheeller
WP 97/010, August 1997

The concept of tourism led socio-economic developemnt in not new or peculiar to South Africa, and international experience and best practise are being assessed as part of the SDI Policy Programme (Agri-tourism SDI's).

A Tale of Two Companies: A Case Study of the Glass Packaging Industry in South Africa

Tanya Rosenthal
WP 97/009, February 1997

The two companies chosen for this study were chosen specifically to explore how companies, facing similar competitive pressures, have decided to respond.

Restructuring for Survival: A Case Study of a Small-Appliance Manufacturer in South Africa

Avril Joffe
WP 97/008, September 1997

The essence of the story is that this is a factory with a heartbeat. There is a constant focus on product development, quality and cost. Communication is high on the list of objectives. There is a joint definition of productivity as a state of mind, a collective will to improve and a general belief in the human desire to do better.

Learning, Technical Change and the Trade Regime in the South African Automotive Component Sector

Anthony Black
WP 96/007, December 1996

In an article published in the Harvard Business Review in 1989, Magaziner et al give a compelling description of the entry of the Korean conglomerate, Samsung, into microwave oven production in the early 1970's.

South African Industrial Policy and the Learning Firm: A Case Study of Bell Equipment Ltd

Raphael Kaplinsky and Edmund Mhlongo
WP 96/006, November 1996

The debate on industrial policy is often counterposed between two truisms.

Restructuring the South African Steel Industry: Case-Study Newcastle

Faith McDonald
WP 96/005, July 1996

This paper, as part of teh Industriap Strategic Project (ISP) Phase Two, Sectors, Clusters and Regions Project researches the effect of industrial restructuring in the town of Newcastle, KwaZulu/Natal.

Printing and Publishing in the Witwatersrand

Michael Schur
WP 96/004, July 1996

The aim of this research project is to determine the role that institutions, including government at all levels, could play in bolstering economic performance in sectorally and geographically concentrated manufacturing firms, and to examine whether such initiatives can form part of a regional industrial policy.

The Clothing Industry in Durban

Erica Prinsloo
WP 96/003, July 1996

Dating back several decades, and shaped by the history of the region, the clothing industry in Durban is unique in its relationships, functioning, institutions and prodpects. But it is also one of the largest concentrations of clothing manufacturers in the country.

A Study of the Cape Clothing Industry

Lionel October
WP 96/002, July 1996

In terms of economic development, regional and local government strategies in South Africa (SA) have focused on the attraction of foreign direct investment and promoting tourism.

The South African Fruit Processing Industry: Is the Climate Ripe?

Stephen Hanival
WP 96/001, July 1996

The previous government's Regional Industrial Development Policy (RIDP) was premised on a logic of dispersion. This policy resulted in the relocation of labour-intensive industries to the homelands and other 'deconcentration points'.

The State of Science and Technology in South Africa: New Priorities, New Policies

David Kaplan
WP 95/001, 1995

This paper surveys the new government's inheritance with respect to science and technology (S&T). Based on an assessment of that inheritance, the author defines the likely policy objectives of the new government and outlines how goverment will seek to restructure the S&T system to meet the new policy objectives.