Water Economics and Politics Seminar Series
/ Climate change and water resources management

Impacts of climate change on agricultural yield and the economic feasibility of adaptation

Speaker: Prof. Katarina Elofsson | Aarhus University, Denmark

Moderator: Prof. Djiby Thiam | Director: WPE – Water and Production Economics, University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa

Time: 16:00 South African Standard Time (SAST) | GMT +2

Topic: Climate change alters precipitation patterns and temperature. The impact on agricultural yields varies across production seasons and crops. The purpose of this study is to examine the nonlinear effect of seasonal precipitation on cereal yields. To this end, we use Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regressions with high-dimensional fixed effects. Results show that increased precipitation during the early growing season enhances crop yields, while in the main growing season it negatively affects crops. Irrigation of winter wheat in the spring could be profitable for farms that own irrigation equipment, but for spring crops this would be the case under dry conditions. See also: Impacts of climate change on agricultural yield and the economic feasibility of adaptation in Sweden in Agricultural and Food Science (2025).

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Katarina Elofsson

About the speaker: Katarina Elofsson is a Professor in Environmental and Resource Economics at Aarhus University, Denmark. She carries out research within environmental and resource economics, with a focus on the economics of carbon sequestration in land use, the economics of biodiversity and wildlife, and the economics of water quality management. Her research interests include bioeconomic models for optimal decisions on natural resources management and cost-effective environmental policies under uncertainty about ecosystem responses. The models are empirically applied at EU, national, and local levels.

Seminar format:

  • Live online session on Microsoft Teams
  • Duration: 1 hour
  • Live presentation with Q&A session

Who should attend: This series is open to students and faculty from academic institutions across South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, policymakers, engineering and technical professionals, advocacy groups, NGO staff, and anyone with a keen interest in water economics and policy.

The UCT-UCR Seminar Series

This seminar is part of the UCT-UCR Seminar Series: Water Economics and Politics, a collaboration between the University of Cape Town (UCT) and University of California, Riverside (UCR). Subscribe to our mailing list to receive updates on upcoming sessions.

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